نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار /گروه سازههای آبی دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران
2 استاد /گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
3 استاد /گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه A&M تگزاس، کالج استیشن، امریکا
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Risk analysis, because of employing mathematical models for evaluating confronted hazards and also pertinent vulnerability, introduces errors in results. The source of mentioned errors could be input data (components) and/or model structure which will impose meaningful uncertainty upon the model output. Present research investigates the effect of uncertainty of discharge-probability function on flood temporal and spatial risk assessment. The Monte Carlo method was engaged for uncertainty analysis and the Azaroud watershed in southern part of the Caspian Sea was selected as the case study. The study was based on temporal and physical loss functions of rice, while HEC-RAS provided the required hydraulic information. Combining loss functions and flood hydraulics in a GIS framework led to Agricultural Expected Annual Damage (AGEAD). Finally the uncertainty of discharge-probability function was introduced to AGEAD which caused it to increase from %1.8 to %1.9. Based on the achieved results, the contribution of probability-discharge function uncertainty in rising up the agricultural expected annual damage was 5.5 %.
کلیدواژهها [English]